--- title: ICON Insights | March, 2025 description: ICON’s Value Methodology is a systematic and quantifiable approach that focuses on delivering reliable investment solutions. As an active, value-based investment firm, we offer a variety of funds to help position your portfolio for long-term success. image: https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/Marketing%20Files/ICON%20Insights%20Assets/Feature%20Images/Bull_bear.jpg --- - [Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/company/icon-advisers/) - [Mail](https://iconadvisers.com/contact-us/) - [Account Access](https://iconadvisers.com/account-access/) - [Open an Account](https://iconadvisers.com/open-an-account/) - [Contact Us](https://iconadvisers.com/contact-us/) - [Contact ICON’s Sales Team](https://iconadvisers.com/contact-icons-sales-team/) - [Corporate Codes and Policies](https://iconadvisers.com/corporate-codes-and-policies/) 1-800-828-4881 [![ICON Advisers](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/IconAdvisers_December2022/images/ICON_Advisers_logo.png?width=340&name=ICON_Advisers_logo.png "ICON Advisers")](https://iconadvisers.com/) - [Home](https://iconadvisers.com/#top) - Services and Solutions - 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While that theme did show up some days in February, the month featured daily theme changes and reversals driven by three influences: (1) threats and declarations out of the White House, (2) Fed guessing regarding potential easing and (3) earnings announcements. As for the first influence, investors reacted daily to threats of potential tariffs. Fed guessing, the second influence, experienced a big shift when the January CPI increase came out larger than expected. That caused investors to revise the number of downward cuts to the Federal Funds rate they are expecting in 2025. As for earnings, 1416 of the companies in the S&P 1500 Index have announced quarterly earnings and, on average, they have beaten estimates by 7.27% and are 12.35% higher than a year ago. On a day-to-day basis, investors reacted to those results but even more so to future guidance issued by the companies. The net result was that the S&P 1500 Index dropped -1.58% for the month with no consistent theme but instead daily reversals based on the news of the day. The American Association of Individual Investors surveys its member every Wednesday afternoon and asked if they are bullish, neutral or bearish regarding the stock market. The results from February 27th of this year were 19.4% bullish and 60.6% bearish for a bull/bear ratio of 32%, meaning about only 1 bull for every 3 bears. This survey began in 1987, so it has a history of 1961 weeks. This reading of 32% is the 13th most bearish reading putting it just below the bottom one percentile. That statistic has had a history of being wrong with bearish readings at many market bottoms and bullish readings at many market peaks. We can still find value in the market, especially in smaller companies and in the Financial, Industrial, Materials and Utilities sectors. ### Bonds The yield on the 10-Year Treasury began the year by increasing the first two weeks from 4.57% to 4.79% on January 14. Since that peak it has trended downward, finishing February at 4.21%. In our view, inflation expectations contribute to that yield level. CPI readings for December 2024 and January 2025 were above forecasts and not consistent with the Fed’s goal of 2% annual inflation. We expect those will prove to be seasonal and that inflation can resume its downward trend. If that proves correct, we do not expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury to shoot back toward 5%. ### Summary Unlike what many investors did in February, we cannot focus on and react to daily news events. Based on value and the belief that the slight uptick in inflation is temporary, we believe the broad stock market can move higher over the next year.   --- [Download the PDF here](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/ICON%20Insights%20(Monthly%20Commentary)/ICON_Insights_March2025.pdf) ---   ***The data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results.*** *Opinions and forecasts regarding sectors, industries, companies, countries and/or themes, and portfolio composition and holdings, are all subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions, and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security, industry, or sector.* *Investing in securities involves inherent risks, including the risk that you can lose the value of your investment. An investment concentrated in sectors and industries may involve greater risk and volatility than a more diversified investment. Investments in international securities may entail unique risks, including political, market, regulatory and currency risks. In general, there is less governmental supervision of foreign stock exchanges and securities brokers and issuers. Investing in fixed income securities such as bonds involves interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities generally decreases.* *Individual account holdings and composition may vary. Opinions and forecasts regarding sectors, industries, companies, countries and/or themes, and portfolio composition and holdings, are all subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions, and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security, industry, or sector.* *ICON’s value-based investing model is an analytical, quantitative approach to investing that employs various factors, including projected earnings growth estimates and bond yields, in an effort to determine whether securities are over- or underpriced relative to ICON’s estimates of their intrinsic value. ICON’s value approach involves forward-looking statements and assumptions based on judgments and projections that are neither predictive nor guarantees of future results. Value readings are contingent on several variables including, without limitation, earnings, growth estimates, interest rates and overall market conditions. Although valuation readings serve as guidelines for our investment decisions, we retain the discretion to buy and sell securities that fall beyond these guidelines as needed. Value investing involves risks and uncertainties and does not guarantee better performance or lower costs than other investment methodologies.* *ICON’s value-to-price ratio is a ratio of the intrinsic value, as calculated using ICON’s proprietary valuation methodology, of a broad range of domestic and international securities within ICON’s system as compared to the current market price of those securities. According to our methodology, a V/P reading of 1.00 indicates stocks are priced at intrinsic value. We believe stocks with a V/P reading below 1.00 are overvalued while stocks with a V/P reading above 1.00 are undervalued. For example, we interpret a V/P reading of 1.15 to mean that for every $1.00 of market value, there is $1.15 of intrinsic value which has not yet been realized in the market price.* *The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.* *Federal Funds: In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which private depository institutions (mostly banks) lend (federal funds) at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions, usually overnight. Changing the target rate is one form of open market operations that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve uses to regulate the supply of money in the U.S. economy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.* *The 10-year yield is the benchmark 10-year yield to maturity reflected by the current issue 10 year U.S. Treasury note.* *Sources: Bloomberg* ***Please visit ICON online at ICONAdvisers.com or call 1-800-828-4881 for the most recent copy of ICON’s Form ADV, Part 2****.* *© 2025 ICON Advisers, All Rights Reserved.* ### Read Previous Commentaries - [![Post image](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/Marketing%20Files/ICON%20Insights%20Assets/Feature%20Images/Stock%20Exchange%20Tickers%20with%20Graph.jpg) **ICON Insights | May, 2026May 6, 2026 4 PM**](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary/icon-insights-may-2026) - [![Post image](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/Marketing%20Files/ICON%20Insights%20Assets/Feature%20Images/Small_Caps_Ticker.jpg) **ICON Insights | February, 2026February 5, 2026 9 PM**](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary/icon-insights-february-2026) - [![Post image](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/Marketing%20Files/ICON%20Insights%20Assets/Feature%20Images/Chariman%20Powell%202.jpg) **ICON Insights | January, 2026January 7, 2026 10 PM**](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary/icon-insights-january-2026) - [![Post image](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/Marketing%20Files/ICON%20Insights%20Assets/Feature%20Images/Volatility%20Graph.jpg) **ICON Insights | July, 2025July 1, 2025 7 PM**](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary/icon-insights-july-2025) - [![Post image](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/Marketing%20Files/ICON%20Insights%20Assets/Feature%20Images/Federal-Reserve-Facade.jpeg) **ICON Insights | August, 2025August 4, 2025 8 PM**](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary/icon-insights-august-2025) ### More News and Views - [ICON Blog](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/icon-blog/) - [Media Room](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/media-room/) - [Articles and White Papers](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/articles-and-white-papers/) - [Monthly Market Commentaries](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary) - [Portfolio Reallocation Commentary](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/portfolio-reallocation-commentary/) ### Quick Search Search for: - Services and Solutions - [Individual Investors](https://iconadvisers.com/services-solutions/individual-investors/) - [Investment Professionals](https://iconadvisers.com/services-solutions/investment-professionals/) - [Institutional Investors](https://iconadvisers.com/services-solutions/institutional-investors/) - Investment Products - [Mutual Funds](https://iconadvisers.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/) - [Tactical Allocation Portfolios](https://iconadvisers.com/investment-products/tactical-allocation-portfolios/) - [Strategy Based Investing Portfolios](https://iconadvisers.com/investment-products/strategy-based-investing-portfolios/) - Resource Center - [Mutual Fund Forms](https://iconadvisers.com/resource-center/mutual-fund-forms/) - [Mutual Fund Literature](https://iconadvisers.com/resource-center/mutual-fund-literature/) - [Portfolio Solutions Forms](https://iconadvisers.com/resource-center/portfolio-solutions-forms/) - [Portfolio Solutions Literature](https://iconadvisers.com/resource-center/portfolio-solutions-literature/) - [Fund Performance and Prices](https://iconadvisers.com/resource-center/fund-performance-and-prices/) - [Tax Center](https://iconadvisers.com/resource-center/tax-center/) - News and Views - [ICON Blog](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/icon-blog/) - [Media Room](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/media-room/) - [Articles and White Papers](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/articles-and-white-papers/) - [Monthly Market Commentaries](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/monthly-market-commentaries/) - [Portfolio Reallocation Commentary](https://iconadvisers.com/news-views/portfolio-reallocation-commentary/) - About Us - [Investment Committee](https://iconadvisers.com/about-us/investment-committee/) - [Key Personnel](https://iconadvisers.com/about-us/key-personnel/) [![icon](https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hs-fs/hubfs/raw_assets/public/IconAdvisers_December2022/images/icon-logo-white-transparent.png?width=200&name=icon-logo-white-transparent.png "icon")](https://iconadvisers.com/) ICON Advisers, Inc. 8480 E Orchard Road, Suite 1200 Greenwood Village, CO 80111 [1-800-828-4881](tel:+1-800-828-4881) [info@InvestwithICON.com](mailto:info@InvestwithICON.com) [ICON Advisers on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/icon-advisers/) *Investing in securities involves inherent risks, including the risk that you can lose the value of your investment. There is no assurance that the investment process will consistently lead to successful results.* ***Consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, and share classes of each ICON Fund carefully before investing. The [prospectus](https://iconadvisers.com/literature-forms/mutual-fund-literature/) contains this and other information about the Funds; please read the prospectus and carefully before investing. RFS Partners, Distributor.*** *ICON Funds are offered only to U.S. citizens or residents of the U.S., and the information on this website is intended only for such persons. Nothing on this website should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any ICON Fund in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.* **ICON Advisers, Inc. is the sub-adviser to the ICON Funds. RFS Partners is the distributor of the ICON Funds.  ** © 2026 Copyright - ICON AdvisersSM All rights reserved. - [Account Access](https://iconadvisers.com/account-access/) - [Open an Account](https://iconadvisers.com/open-an-account/) - [Contact Us](https://iconadvisers.com/contact-us/) - [Contact ICON’s Sales Team](https://iconadvisers.com/contact-icons-sales-team/) - [Corporate Codes and Policies](https://iconadvisers.com/corporate-codes-and-policies/) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Dr. Craig Callahan ICON Advisers – Founder & Executive Committee Chair", "url" : "https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary/author/dr-craig-callahan-icon-advisers-founder-president" }, "dateModified" : "2025-03-04T16:00:51.187Z", "datePublished" : "2025-03-04T16:00:29.000Z", "headline" : "ICON Insights | March, 2025", "image" : [ "https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/Marketing%20Files/ICON%20Insights%20Assets/Feature%20Images/Bull_bear.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://blog.iconadvisers.com/icon-insights-market-commentary/march-2025", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://blog.iconadvisers.com/hubfs/ICON_Advisers_logo-1.jpg" }, "name" : "ICON Advisers" } } ```